A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
