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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still